ABSTRACT
AIM: The outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic (SARS-CoV-2) was initiated in December 2019, and within a couple of months it became a global health emergency. Given the importance to assess the evolution and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 and to forecast the next scenario of the pandemic, mainly in countries with limited healthcare systems, we estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), India, and a possible scenario for this pandemic in the region. SUBJECT AND METHODS: We estimated the reproductive number (R0) of SARS-CoV-2 in its first outbreak stage in the northwestern region of Himalaya, India, and we also predicted new daily cases for the next 90 days using different R0, testing a plausible end of the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak. RESULTS: Our results showed a considerable increase in the number of cases, but with a tendency to asymptote. Anantnag, Bandipora, Baramulla, Shopian, and Srinagar districts showed more than 100 cases and Kulgam and Kathua districts showed strong growth of the number of cases from the beginning of May, without a tendency to normalization. The estimated R0 for the J&K region was 1.041; but by decreasing the RO by 10, 25, and 50%, we observed a great decrease in the daily number of new cases, especially by decreasing by 50%. CONCLUSION: In this study, we indicate positive effects of the preventive measures, such as lockdown and social distancing, taken in the J&K region, showing a stabilization of the growth curves of new cases of SARS-CoV-2, which tends to a strong decrease over time as the R0 decreases.
ABSTRACT
Traditional diets exist in all cultures and geographic regions, and they often represent healthy eating options. Traditional culinary preparations have, however, often undergone profound change, even in the isolated Himalayan region. Therefore, we adapted methods to identify traditional plant foraging activities to better understand their significance in food system sustainability, as well as to promote innovative local gastronomies. Information on wild food and foraging practices was gathered from varied ethnic groups such as Kashmiri, Gujjars, Pahari, Dogra, Bakarwal, Balti, Beda and Brokpa through interviews (n = 716) and group discussions (n = 67) in four bio-geographic regions of the Jammu and Kashmir Himalayas (J&KH). The data were subjected to ordination techniques (Principal Component Analysis) via R software Ver. 4.0.0. We documented 209 food species, of which 73% were plants and 27% animals, used by the inhabitants of four bio-geographic regions of J&KH. The highest number of food plant species was recorded in Indian Kashmir, followed by Jammu, Azad Kashmir and Ladakh (81, 65, 60 and 27 species, respectively), and the maximum number of animal species was reported in Indian Kashmir, followed by Azad Kashmir, Ladakh and Jammu (33, 21, 19 and 17 species, respectively). The Azad Kashmir and Indian Kashmir regions showed greater similarity, whereas the least overlap was observed between Kashmir and Ladakh. The PCA showed considerable variation between different regions, and specific groups of species were more related to one specific region than others. The reported uses of Abies pindrow, Acacia modesta, Bergenia ciliata, Bergenia stracheyi and Juglans regia among plants, and Jynx torquilla, Streptopelia orientalis and Tadorna ferruginea among animals, are novel for the gastronomy of this part of the Himalayan region. We also recorded for the first time from this region seven unique food preparations of wild animals. This study documented extensive traditional knowledge on the usage of wild species, and is the first scientific description of wild food species and their vernacular names in the Western Himalayas, Jammu and Kashmir. Our findings can contribute significantly to combating food insecurity by revitalizing and reconsidering the rich bio-cultural food heritage around which local traditional communities have developed their food systems.